Texas's early voting data makes clear Democrats have an enthusiasm edge: early voting is up 119 percent in Austin and 93 percent in El Paso compared to 2012, while it's up by much less in heavily GOP counties. It would still be a shock if Trump failed to carry the largest Republican state in the country, but Texas moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
You'll notice the longer they keep Trump out of the news cycle, the worse Clinton does. Her performance on FiveThirtyEight shows a recent short drop. GOP downballot shenanigans yesterday seem to have arrested that slide.